The Effect of Unemployment on Crime in Jordan During the Period 2006-2024

Abstract

Abstract:

This study aimed to investigate the effect of unemployment on the crime rate in Jordan by examining the effects of (the unemployment rate, economic growth, and the secondary school enrollment rate) on the crime rate in Jordan during the period (2006-2024). Both descriptive and analytical econometric approaches were employed, utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method.

The results of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests indicated that the study variables are stationary at level I(0) and first difference I(1). Furthermore, the estimation results of the study model revealed a positive and statistically significant effect of both (the unemployment rate and economic growth) on the crime rate in Jordan. Conversely, a negative and statistically significant effect of the secondary school enrollment rate on the crime rate in Jordan was found.

The study recommended the establishment of a national emergency temporary employment program targeting high school and university graduates who have been unemployed for more than six months. This program should focus on public benefit projects (such as afforestation, infrastructure maintenance, and digital support for small enterprises). Such an initiative would immediately reduce the opportunity cost of crime, provide income and skills, and disrupt the extended periods of idle time that increase risks.